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Tropical Storm Michael

Tropical Storm Michael

Tropical Storm Michael

Another hurricane will hit the coat of the US this time near the Florida panhandle.

Intensity forecast: a Cat 2 at landfall.

The main impediment to intensification will be wind shear. An upper-level trough of low pressure was bringing 20 knots of shear to Michael Sunday afternoon. This trough is forecast to weaken to pull to the west, allowing shear to drop to 10 – 20 knots on Monday – Wednesday as the strongest upper-level winds arc around Michael's north side. Shear of this magnitude and type should allow at least steady strengthening, and possibly rapid intensification. The 0Z Monday run of the SHIPS model gave a 23% chance that Michael would intensity into a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane by Wednesday night. However, the model's most likely intensity estimate was for a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds at that time. The 18Z Sunday run of our top intensity model from 2017, the HWRF model, predicted landfall on Wednesday morning as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Our other two top intensity models, the HMON and LGEM, were more restrained, predicting that Michael would make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.

At least it's going to be a "small" storm by the time it reaches shore. Still, as we learned from Leslie, there will be lots of flooding, loss of life and people will need to be rescued.

This story will be unfolding...

You can find more information on the active hurricanes across planet earth here.

John Westerman